HomeCryptoCrypto Advocates Sift Graveyard of Technical Indicators That Failed to Predict Bitcoin Bottom – Bitcoin News
Crypto Advocates Sift Graveyard of Technical Indicators That Failed to Predict Bitcoin Bottom – Bitcoin News
December 27, 2022
As the end of 2022 approaches, a large number of bitcoin supporters are wondering whether or not the bottom is in regards to the official end of the cryptocurrency winter. The current bitcoin bear run just entered the longest bottom formation since the 2013-2015 bitcoin bear market. Additionally, the analysts note that most of the bottom technical indicators used to forecast bitcoin prices have failed to predict whether or not the bottom is.
Rainbows and S2F: The List of Technical Indicators That Failed to Predict Bitcoin’s Bottom
A month ago, cryptocurrency advocates celebrated resistance to one of the longest and toughest bitcoin bear markets since the 2013-2015 bitcoin bear market. At the time, the 2013-2015 bitcoin run-down was the longest-running recession, but today, the current period of contraction in the crypto economy is set to outpace the 2013-2015 crypto downturn.
In addition to longer lower stage, Bitcoin.com News reported 144 days ago how a number of technical indicators this year have failed to predict the future US dollar value of bitcoin. One of the major price model failures mentioned this year was the stock-to-flow (S2F) model, which was denounced by Ethereum advocate Anthony Sassano and ETH co-founder Vitalik Buterin last June.
“We need more pain before we hit rock bottom”
My friend, we have seen:
– a collapse of the first 3 exchanges – 2 top VCs in space are liquidated – 2 top 10 coins capped at $60 billion go to zero – loan market wiped out – Bitcoin down about 80% compared to ATH – alts down 90-99% from ATH
With all the so-called “biggest” technical indicators failing miserably, many crypto advocates are still writing forum posts and social media threads on the confused bottom of bitcoin. For example, on December 27, the Crypto Noob Twitter account tweeted: “Bitcoin is currently trading in the oversold zone. Which is historically where the bottom is formed. Do you think BTC has hit rock bottom?”
Questions and posts like these are littered across cryptocurrency-focused forums and social media platforms like Facebook and Twitter. On Reddit, the r/cryptocurrency subreddit forum features a post highlighting how the underlying technical indicators have failed, and the post’s author explains that the analysts “have no idea” and this time, “It’s different.”
Post author “u/Beyonderr” explains how eight technical indicators have been unreliable for bitcoin traders this year. For example, the weekly RSI (relative strength index) should have signaled oversold levels and bitcoin lows, but Beyonderr says “that was not true this year.”
Other unreliable technical indicators mentioned by Beyonderr include Monthly MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence), Rainbow Price Chart, 200 Week Moving Average, 100 Week Moving Average X 20 Week Moving Average, Indicator of the Pi cycle, the Hash indicator tapes and the average drawdown percentage from the high of a cycle.
Also, Beyonderr made fun of the S2F price model by calling it the “Meme bonus” indicator. “The worst indicator of all, the awful Plan B Stock-to-flow model. Add that to the failing pile,” wrote Beyonderr. The r/cryptocurrency post also mentioned that there could be four indicators suggesting that the bottom “could be inside,” at least according to Beyonderr.
Indicators Beyonderr cites include cues such as “time in market,” “Puell Multiple,” “Mayer Multiple,” and “MVRV Z-score.” Meanwhile, large numbers of people on social media platforms like Twitter wholeheartedly believe that bottom is awfully close to being in, but so far most of the technical signals have just been unreliable detours.
What do you think about failed technical indicators that could not predict the bitcoin bottom? Let us know what you think about this topic in the comments section below.
Jamie Redman is News Lead at Bitcoin.com News and a financial technology journalist based in Florida. Redman has been an active member of the cryptocurrency community since 2011. He has a passion for Bitcoin, open-source code and decentralized applications. Since September 2015, Redman has written more than 6,000 articles for Bitcoin.com News about the disruptive protocols emerging today.
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